It’s a Trumpian world, Donald’s true victory. Let’s lay some blame at the feet of technology.

trump-screaming

6 November 2016 – If Donald Trump loses the U.S. Presidential election this Tuesday, a great many people in both America and elsewhere will breathe a huge sigh of relief. But the truth is there won’t be that much to be relieved about. In the US, Trump’s influence will linger. His campaign showed that a politician can spew outright lies and blatant hate-speech and still retain support. Others will follow his example, and even moderates will be less afraid of the truth-o-meter . That will intensify social media’s  echo-chamber effect and further shrink America’s capacity for serious political debate.

Trump also  convinced lots of voters (who admittedly didn’t need much convincing) that American judges are biased, the media tell only lies, elections are rigged, and no branch of government is to be trusted.

And you know what? Donald Trump was right when he said the system is rigged, but not in the way he meant. It isn’t rigged against him. He’s part of the ecosystem of media, political consultants, producers, politicians and propagandists that are rigged against “The People” – and that system is working just fine. Everyone’s in on the same game, which is essentially to ensure that “The People” gobble up what they’ve been serving – and what they’re serving is resentment, fear and anger. That was my message in my long-form essay Donald Trump, media politics and the business of outrage (now available in English and German; click here).

 

Whether the Republican party  falls apart in the wake of Trump’s defeat or is rejuvenated, it will have this alienated, angry bloc of voters to contend with. If he wants it, the unofficial role of Republican kingmaker will be Trump’s for the taking.

 

But outside the U.S., too, Trumpist attitudes have been taking root, perhaps buoyed by his success. Xenophobia is sweeping Europe, as evidenced by the Brexit vote, the proliferation of new border fences, and the gains by far-right leaders in a variety of national elections. World trade is slowing and protectionism is on the rise.

 

 

And Vladimir Putin? There is not enough space in this column but in summary my thoughts: the desired result for Putin in the U.S. election has not necessarily been the presidency of Donald Trump, no matter what hidden connections are in Trump’s tax returns. In fact, Trump seems to be rather disposable. The true mission is sowing disruption, chaos. And in doing that, Putin will have accomplished something for himself, regardless of who wins next week: a deeply fractured American system, once held up as a shining alternative to Moscow’s style of power, now tarnished beyond recognition.

 

 

In Europe, western security officials say Putin is pursuing an even more aggressive campaign to destabilize and weaken the politicians of the old order everywhere and seen by Russian actions in Bulgaria, Hungary and Poland, and more ominously in the Baltic states. It’s what General Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of the general staff, candidly billed as “non-linear war” (the term taken from a short story written by one of Putin’s closest political advisors, Vladislav Surkov, and published just a few days before the annexation of Crimea). Surkov is credited with inventing the system of “managed democracy” that has dominated Russia in the 21st century, and his new portfolio focuses on foreign policy … and the artificial intelligence technology available to create a dystopian future, at least for the West. The Russians have betrayed a nuanced understanding of 21st century technology and geopolitics.

 

 

I have been attending back-to-back workshops the last few days, the subject matters being the “weaponization of social media” and the “weaponization of information”. The focus has been the darker side of AI and machine learning. Such things as:

 

  • how all the intelligence services data mine Twitter, Linkedin, Instagram, etc. to build portfolios on people across the globe
  • how these intelligence services (and commercial entities) fund/employ companies like Dataminr to do heavy-duty surveillance
  • How companies like Geofeedia geotag almost every social media message out there
  • How metadata can be altered without detection
  • How algorithmic filtering works to control the flow of information for political purposes
Next week I will have a longer post on both workshops.

 

 

And yes, said all presenters (and most attendees): we are experiencing the culmination of a new form of information war. A months-long campaign backed by the Russian government to undermine the credibility of the U.S. presidential election – through hacking, cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns – is so evident and proven it is not worth debating anymore.

But if you really want to worry, be wary of hacks on America’s media outlets – which are a likely election day target – and appear ill-prepared for a major cyber-attack. And more broadly, worry that those around you may succumb to dezinformatsiya, which is the Russians’ name for their system of troll armies, lies, and weaponized information that seeks to confuse and discredit democracy.

With the onslaught of artificial intelligence we seem to have launched into a state where we assume that intelligence is somehow the teleological endpoint of evolution – incredibly anthropocentric, and pretty much wrong along every conceivable axis. Yes, the breathtaking advance of scientific discovery and technology has the unknown on the run. But we have been hurled headlong into a frenetic pace and suffer from illusions of understanding, a false sense of comprehension, failing to  see the looming chasm between what our brain knows and what our mind is capable of accessing. We have allowed a proliferation of technology to dramatically infiltrate all aspects of modern life — failing to understand its complexity and darker side, its dystopian capabilities.

In my long piece noted above … Donald Trump, media politics and the business of outrage … I go into greater detail.

But in brief, the partisanship of news outlets, the “Balkanization” of U.S. media leaves the public with the impossibility of sorting out what’s true and what’s not. Trump’s saturation of the social media market showed he knew how to play the game. Instead of relying on “traditional media” he used carefully-chosen interviews, corporate-crafted Facebook posts – and Tweets … and so he became the medium and the message, unpredictable and always around. A great sell.

To me, this is the year knowledge died. Yes, weaponized misinformation is hardly a new phenomenon. But its effect on the U.S. 2016 presidential race and world-wide politics has been exceptionally ominous. In the U.S., a campaign of deliberate deceptions involving but not limited to foreign entities seeking to disrupt the American political process to their own ends should be ringing alarm bells for any voters.

 

But there’s no one left to ring them; the stewards of objective discourse have been discredited in the minds of those this campaign has targeted. Says the writer Noah Rothman:

The age in which there was universally understood and incontrovertible truth is over. The information age has given way to something more closely resembling its antonym.

So no matter who wins, then, the next U.S. president will take office in an increasingly Trumpian world. That is perhaps the Donald’s true victory: that ideas and methods that a year ago seemed beyond the pale are now increasingly accepted as a normal part of politics. And it will only get worse.

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