The Munich Security Conference may be over for another year, but the reverberations of the past few days are ricocheting across Europe as Ukraine faces a defining moment.
And a postscript: what the war in Ukraine really represents
17 February 2025 (Munich, Germany) – – Under Trump, a U.S. that once united Europe now divides it. When Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago, the United States helped whip Europe into a staunchly unified response. Now, U.S. leaders may be splitting Europe into pieces as Donald Trump seeks to end the war. Last week, U.S. Vice President JD Vance and other top administration officials made their European debut – slashing and burning their way through a continent of allies as they embraced far-right leaders, demanded access to mineral wealth and offered sympathy to the views of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
By the end of the week, European leaders found themselves potentially cut out of peace talks with Russia, facing down a trade war with Washington and scrambling to answer U.S. requests about how many troops they can marshal to Ukraine to guarantee a truce negotiated without their input. Europeans already had 4 years of a Trump presidency. But many policymakers say that this time feels different, with four head-snapping weeks of Trump already recasting the attitudes of leaders who had vowed to make the best of his new term in office. Said Finnish President Alexander Stubb over the weekend:
The view was a little bit more optimistic just four weeks ago as Trump entered office. Of course, the developments that we’ve seen in the past few days give us a little bit more pause for pessimism. But as I’ve always said, pessimism is usually inaction. Optimism is action, and realism is a solution. So let’s be realistic and try to look at a good pathway forward.
But most Europeans are looking at the situation with nervousness, frustration and alarm. An EU Commission staffer told me:
After the U.S. election, we kept saying we’d need to “Trump-proof” ourselves to save ourselves. Absolutely nothing would have prepared us for this.
Advocates of Washington’s generations-long partnership with European democracies say that Trump’s team just quickly become a force for chaos. The United States helped rebuild Europe after World War II and fostered the economic cooperation of the European Union to try to put an end to nationalist clashes on the continent. Now, Trump is simply trying to pull Europe apart, emboldening the Kremlin and raising the risk of borders being redrawn again by force. We had a century of American leadership where we’ve been able to be seen as a force toward stability. And that is not just vanishing – it’s actually moving in the opposite direction.
And so the U.S. has become a source of instability, and Europe (finally) see the value of the American handshake is … well, zero. You cannot count on the Americans, even if you get an agreement, be it Ukraine, security or trade.
But the big surprise in Munich this year was what colleague told me was “the whiplash” : Europeans were simply shocked by the speed at which Trump and his lieutenants have taken aim at pillars of their continent’s security and moved to cut a deal with Russia. Many NATO allies left a meeting of defense ministers last week convinced that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth planned to pull tens of thousands of troops from Europe in the coming years, three officials said, though they cautioned that the effort still appears nascent.
And Trump revealed he spoke for nearly 90 minutes last Wednesday to Putin, without consulting with Ukraine or Europeans beforehand. It then emerged from the conversation that Trump appeared to embrace the Kremlin’s viewpoint that NATO expansion justified Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Until now, it has been a tenet of U.S. policy that European countries have the right to seek their own alliances free from Russian military pushback. Some on Trump’s team dismiss the idea that he is trying to sow divisions inside Europe. Tough, frank talk between friends is the best way to spark European defense spending and rebuild a partnership. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia:
You look at triage as a medic, what’s the first thing you do? Stop the bleeding, then you treat for shock. And what we’re trying to do is we’re trying to stop the bleeding. You cannot restrict this conflict intellectually to just Europe. This is a global fight. And if you don’t think it’s a global fight, you’re wrong.
But he’s dead wrong. Pardon my French, but he is full of shit. Trump’s policies are unraveling efforts to cooperate against common foes. Even good-faith attempts to build ties to his administration have been undercut by his shifting decisions. Europeans were told that if you want to talk about Ukraine and Europe, talk to Kellogg. And so they have invested months in the relationship. But Kellogg does not want to talk.
Note to readers: Yesterday, Trump appeared to be cutting Kellogg out of the key dialogue with Russia, announcing that his Mideast envoy and personal friend, Steve Witkoff, would handle talks with the Kremlin instead. Kellogg will not be in Saudi Arabia this week, as originally planned. As an EU Commission contact told me “Kellogg is meeting with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen today, but to collect information – not to give it. He seems to becoming a common staffer, not a key peg”.
And the EU establishment is simply flummoxed. Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans said in an interview this morning:
Europe needs to work together against dictators and not fight among each other about democracy. We need to project unity and strength. But how do we do that?
One reaction, which people say will go nowhere, is French President Emmanuel Macron who will host European leaders in Paris today for crisis talks as they scramble to respond to the fast-moving events of recent days. But it is a “conclave of the willing” and not any kind of EU meeting because Macros knows the EU will never come together with pro-Russia countries like Hungary and Slovakia fighting any such effort.
But everybody here is slowing realizing that the old days are over. As I noted last week, policymakers were simply taken aback by Vance’s Friday speech in Munich, where he blasted “fire walls” that Germany’s centrist parties have built against including the anti-immigrant, nationalist Alternative for Germany party in coalitions. Some of the party’s leaders have embraced Nazi-era slogans and declared that new generations should be freed from apologizing for the sins of their grandparents. Vance also met party leader Alice Weidel, becoming the highest-ranking U.S. official to do so.
Said E.U. foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas after the speech:
Vance is trying to pick a fight with us, and we don’t want to a pick a fight with our friends. What is his purpose?
Some leaders noted that Vance delivered the speech a day after laying a wreath for the victims of the Dachau concentration camp – the very physical embodiment of what can happen when nationalism steers toward extremes.
These threats are not theoretical. Russia has designs on full control of Ukraine and has every intent to bite into other European neighbors. too. He will not abandon his hybrid warfare across Europe. We . are . at war. We cannot claim that we are in peacetime anymore. Putin gets it. We are going to get something that will look nice on paper that will give Russia the possibility to mobilize, to rearm and to continue, in Ukraine, and elsewhere. That is a given. For America, Europe is irrelevant.
And to take it deeper, elements of the common U.S. and European effort to help Ukraine have fallen victim to Trump’s targeting of the U.S. Agency for International Development and the global freeze on foreign aid. Key parts of the challenging work to keep Ukraine’s lights on were paid by USAID, with the aid halt freezing the production of key replacement parts for the power grid and generation, one Ukrainian energy official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security topic. With no clarity about when or if U.S. funding might be restored, Ukrainians likely will shiver in the dark this winter for more hours every day than if USAID were paying the contracts it signed.
And that just emphasizes that for Trump it is all just “what is the bottom line”. There is no kind of underlying trust or alliance, where everything is a negotiating tactic. People rightfully feel everything with America is now transactional, rather than based upon the normal rule of shared values and shared history, shared defense against authoritarians in the past.
And the unforeseen plot twists keep … well, twisting. In another unforeseen plot twist that captures the head-spinning state of current international relations, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has emerged as a key figure in negotiations over the Ukraine war. Best known for his short-lived spell on the diplomatic naughty step after murdering the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, MBS spoke to Emmanuel Macron last night, with the French president stressing the role Europe could play in the process, and MBS proclaiming “he will promote Europe’s banner”. Fancy that.
Although late yesterday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sought to downplay concerns, saying in an interview with CBS News that Ukraine and Europe would be part of any “real negotiations” to end the war, before adding that “we’re just not there yet.”
You know, separately … and then together. Ukraine was not invited to this week’s Saudi talks but said the intention is for the Americans to hold a bilateral meeting with Russia, then a bilateral meeting with Ukraine, and then talks with all three together. Got it? Neither do I. People are very confused. Nothing is clear where we’re moving.
But the bottom line remains. There’s no possible peace deal that will prevent Russia from attacking Europe again. Russia will remain a threat to Europe, whatever kind of peace deal.
There is, of course, the sickening fealty Trump pays to Putin which I will address in another post. Equally sickening was Vance’s faux lecturing to Europe about *democracy* and Ukraine. But there is a diabolical quality to it.
And over the last few months an equally disturbing narrative has been transferred from the Kremlin, to Tucker Carlson and company, and to the White House. It goes something like this:
“Ukrainians chose this war. That was a mistake. They are responsible for the perpetuation of the war they could not win. The death of Ukrainians is on the hands of Kyiv”.
From my perspective, this is the most evil argument of the entire war.
Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary arrived in Kyiv to present the first draft of a “partnership agreement” that would provide for investment in Ukraine’s mineral resources in exchange for further assistance. According to Trump, American support for Ukraine has a price tag of $500B worth of Ukrainian rare minerals. Trump said that he wanted “balance” from Ukraine for what he claimed was “close to” $375.8bn in U.S. support. In contrast, the U.S. Department of State reported on 9 January 2025, that the US has provided $65.9 billion in military assistance since 2022. According to the Ukraine Support Tracker, the US has donated a total of $114B in defence, financial and humanitarian aid: Three times less than Trump’s highly inflated claim.
The demand for “compensation” has since been raised to 50% of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. Ukraine’s proven total mineral reserves are valued at $15 trillion.
Zelenskyy refused to sign an agreement that demanded a staggering 50% of its rare earth minerals while providing no security guarantees. Brian Hughes, White House National Security Council spokesman, called Zelenskyy’s refusal to sign the proposed agreement granting the US access to rare earth minerals in Ukraine as “short-sighted”.
But here is the thing: Ukraine is not indebted to the US or Europe. The West is indebted to Ukraine:
• Ukraine has already paid for the “aid” in blood. In 1994, Ukraine agreed to transfer its nuclear weapons to Russia, in exchange for assurances from Russia, the US and the UK to respect the Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders. The Budapest Memorandum made Russia’s full-scale invasion possible and none of the signature parties lived up to their commitments.
• Ukraine has further paid for this “aid” by protecting the NATO members when the Alliance under US leadership failed to live up to its commitment to end a war that threatens the security of the Alliance. Russia sees the West – not Ukraine – as its enemy and is according to Western intelligence, actively preparing for a war with NATO. It is already waging a hybrid war against the US and Europe.
• Ukraine has further paid for the “aid” by inflicting nearly 860,000 casualties, destroying more than 10,000 tanks, 21,000 armored combat vehicles, 23,000 pieces of artillery, nearly 1,300 MLRS and 1,100 air defense systems, 370 aircraft and 330 helicopters and a great part of the Black Sea Fleet. Ukraine has greatly reduced Russia’s Armed Forces, thereby reducing the threat from NATO’s primary enemy.
The U.S. proposal to take Ukrainian resources in “payment” for aid provided to militarily degrade NATO’s enemy and protect the Alliance is outright repulsive. Fortunately, Europe – which has commitments over $174 billion in total – is linking the aid to its security. Europe is in a sense defending itself in Ukraine.
As I have noted before, Russia invaded Ukraine because it is essential for its ambition to achieve strategic parity with the U.S. There is nothing realistic in trying to coerce Putin to give up its Great Power ambitions through words, tariffs and sanctions. On the contrary, appeasement will only feed Putin’s ambitions.
And Trump has not addressed the broader confrontation and Russia’s hybrid war against the West. On the contrary, one can argue that Trump is supporting Putin’s year-long attempt to weaken Western cohesion and the transatlantic link by bullying and threatening the U.S.’s allies.
