And so “The Art of the Deal” is apparently to sell out the most pro-American, most resource rich nation in Europe to a coalition of all the enemies of the U.S.
13 February 2025 (Munich, Germany) – Last year, long before the US elections, I wrote that if Trump was elected, the U.S. administration would:
• Stop military aid to Ukraine
• Push Ukraine to give up its territory
• Block Ukraine from entering NATO
Yesterday, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made it official, stating:
• Ukraine should not rely on U.S. military funding
• Ukraine must give up its territories
• No NATO membership for Ukraine
Later this week, Keith Kellogg (U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia) will be visiting Ukraine. He will reiterate the same positions.
In a social media post filled with lies, historical distortions, and shameless praise of Russia, Trump says he had a “lengthy and highly productive” phone call with Vladimir Putin, during which the Russian dictator supposedly “agreed” that the very war he started should end.
I mean … WTF??!! Note how Trump explicitly states that he and Putin agreed on the plan and will now inform President Zelensky – making it clear that he and Putin are on the same side.
And this really sums it up. Last night, a reporter asked Trump whether Ukraine was an equal partner in the peace process. “It’s an interesting question,” he replied. “I think they have to make peace. That was not a good war to go into.” Which sounds more than a bit like he’s blaming Russia’s full-scale invasion on Ukraine.
This isn’t just a bad deal – it’s a time bomb wrapped in diplomatic paper. The message couldn’t be clearer:
• Want territory? Threaten nuclear war
• Got promises from the West? They’re worthless
• Need resources? Just take them by force
But here’s the truly terrifying part: we’re not just compromising Ukraine – we’re writing the script for future aggressors. China sees a green light for Taiwan. North Korea and Iran learn that nuclear threats pay dividends.
And Russia? They simply confirm that with patience and utter brutality you will eventually wear down Western support. The West has neither the political will nor the balls to withstand that kind of attack.
And please be very, very aware. This isn’t pressing pause on conflict – it is pressing fast-forward on a cascade of aggression. When these powers coordinate (and they will, because we’ve shown them it works), we won’t be facing isolated challenges. We’ll be staring down an Axis of authoritarian states who’ve learned that might makes right and Western promises are written in sand.
Make no mistake: this deal doesn’t prevent World War III. It schedules it – and gives our adversaries time to choose the perfect moment.
And so we have decided that condemning the millions of Ukrainians now under Russian occupation to genocide is a good idea. Didn’t Trump say he wanted to stop the killing? No, he is merely facilitating it.
But it is all over Europe’s heads. “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” has been the mantra in the EU political mainstream. Just 2-days ago in Strasbourg European Parliament President Roberta Metsola repeated it, adding “Ukraine and Europe will be in it together”.
Now, the tone has shifted, with a cacophony of ministers, diplomats and officials left begging Washington not to ditch Kyiv, or European involvement. Because as far as the EU is concerned, any high-stakes negotiations that could decide the future of Eastern Europe must include Ukraine, and European diplomats.
The EU has been blindsided. And so there was a flurry of statements and interviews. Herein just a few:
• German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said “We must take this path together so that peace returns to Europe. We must be involved. Peace can only be achieved together. And that means: with Ukraine and with the Europeans”.
• Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže said: “Ukrainian agency in any peace talks is crucially important. It is impossible without them. In order to have successful peace deal, Russia needs to be weakened on the battlefield. Russia’s politics, economics, religion, media, private sector, religion — it is all oriented towards war. Thus, Russia has to be forced to peace”.
• Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, reacting to Trump, said on Twitter: “All we need is peace. A JUST PEACE. Ukraine, Europe and the United States should work on this together. TOGETHER”.
• The EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas released a statement late last night. She said “Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity are unconditional. Our priority must now be strengthening Ukraine and providing robust security guarantees. In any negotiation, Europe must have a central role”. The problem is, as Trump is repeatedly making clear, it doesn’t.
Remember when European Council President António Costa demanded last month that the EU have a seat at the table in peace talks? Trump has so far given Putin much more of his time than he has to Costa or EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen. Europeans should start hoping they’ll be in the same building, let alone at the table, when talks are held.
There will be more this weekend. Lots more. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and U.S. Secretary of Defense will all be at the Munich Security Conference which starts tomorrow. And all 3 will meet with Zelenskyy tomorrow.
But as we discussed at a media breakfast today, European officials have long feared Trump’s historically warm personal relationship with Putin could see them cut out of any high-level discussions about the future of their continent. Trump has previously described Putin’s decision to begin his brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine as “genius” and “savvy” and U.S. government staffers here in Munich preparing for the weekend have told me Trump’s opinion has not changed.
The tree that hides the forest
While Hegseth’s comments about Ukraine obviously grabbed the headlines, he had another brutal fact for the continent. NATO can only work if “our European allies … step into the arena and take ownership of conventional security in Europe,” so that the U.S. can focus on the threat from “communist China”, he said. Europe’s security, the new U.S. defense secretary bluntly indicated, is not a priority for Washington.
Plus, NATO will ask allies for a 30% increase of military capability, plus an increase in their percentage of direct NATO contributions – which very few of NATO members can meet. Just as Russian defense spending has overtaken Europe, a new NATO study finds.
Is that an indication the Trump administration will withdraw troops, ships and warplanes from Europe? During his Senate confirmation hearing, Hegseth said he would review American military presence around the globe — so Europeans will find out soon enough.
As an EU official warned me this morning: “a new reality is setting in across Europe and we are simply not prepared, at any level. I think yesterday might go down in history as a dark day for Europe. European leaders have finally realized that, to the U.S., we are irrelevant, and we must now take our fate into our own hands. Or we are really fucked”. Nice diplomatic flourish at the end.
Oh, there will be a lot more to think about and write about, and I am fortunate to be at the conference this year. Just a few wrap-up thoughts for now.
As I have said so many times before, Putin is winning in the cognitive sphere and the current Trump cabinet seems stacked with a security, intelligence and national defense apparatus that has repeated Kremlin anti-Ukrainian disinformation and expressed sympathy with Putin and hostility towards President Zelensky. Special units in the FBI and CIA tasked with protecting the United States against Russian disinformation and election interference have been dismantled by Attorney General Pam Bondi as well as counter-intelligence and counter-espionage units.
And all of this was clearly timed to coincide with the high profile hostage release by Putin and by Lukashenko – he being the President of Belarus who was ordered by Putin to release an American he was holding.
The U.S. is walking away from its NATO commitment – arrogantly, and with impunity. Trump’s intention of stopping “the millions of deaths”? Stopping the war in Ukraine in this way will not bring a just and lasting peace. Trump has not signaled anything that resembles an intention to achieve that.
I’ll finish with three observations made by Hans Petter Midttun, former Defence Attache to Ukraine, and a fellow at the Centre for Defence Strategies:
Firstly, Trump does not address the fundamental nature of the war. Trump wants to end the war through diplomatic means. The U.S. Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, stressed that “We will only end this devastating war and establish a durable peace… with a realistic assessment of the battlefield”.
Russia invaded Ukraine because it is essential for its ambition to achieve strategic parity with the US. There is nothing realistic in trying to coerce Putin to give up its Great Power ambitions through words, tariffs and sanctions. On the contrary, appeasement will only feed Putin’s ambitions.
Secondly, Trump has never addressed the broader confrontation and Russia’s hybrid war against the West, especially Europe. On the contrary, one can argue that Trump is supporting Putin’s year-long attempt to weaken Western cohesion and the transatlantic link by bullying and threatening U.S. allies. Putin’s hybrid war against Europe will now ramp up.
Thirdly, the Trump administration continues to signal measures in line with Putin’s conditions for negotiations. Putin demands that Ukraine must cede the occupied territories to Russia. Trump agrees. Hegseth said yesterday that a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is not a realistic goal.
As Midttun notes, according to Putin, Ukraine must abandon its goal to join NATO. Trump agrees. The U.S. Secretary of Defense made clear that the U.S. does not consider NATO membership for Ukraine a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement of the war.
Most European leaders agree with the notion that “The future of European security depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine” and that “There is a war going on in Ukraine for the future of the whole of Europe”. The security of the Alliance has long been directly linked to Ukraine’s ability to withstand the Russian onslaught.
Walking away from the U.S. commitment to guarantee the security of Ukraine, therefore, equals stepping away from Europe – and letting Putin do as he wishes.
Yes, the doomsday vibes have gone into overdrive. But Europeans had 3 years to assert themselves and the liberal order by bringing Ukraine in a position of strength. They failed the test. Now Putin is in a position of strength. And to be brutal about it, foreign policy analyst Ulrich Speck gets it right: “Without U.S. security protection, the EU is no longer”.
More to come.