The problem, as the war grinds on, is that Zelenskyy faces a new set of challenges. But the people of Ukraine have an indomitable leader.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
20 April 2020 – My, God. Today so much in our world appears to be fucked. Nazi Holocaust level fucked. And we sit in this couch-potato-pundit era of Tweetstorms. As the 21st century wore on, even those with rose-tinted glasses finally saw that political confrontation, economic nationalism, and cultural nativism had resurfaced – that we had ushered in a renewed great-power competition and an ideological struggle between liberal and illiberal global norms. And so the fallout from the Ukraine War has ricocheted around the world in unanticipated ways.
But a very interesting guy has stayed firm amongst the muck, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This guy seems to have transcended it all. And his worse times are yet to come.
I’ve watched all of Zelensky’s videos, all translated by my Ukranian/Russian team. Plus a stream of analysis on his tenure. But one of the difficulties in covering this war (any war) is that you need to collect a sea of random bits of information in order to construct a narrative. OSINT has made this both easy and hard – you get a torrent of information but you also need to verify it. Also, you cannot be an arm-chair historian. I am fortunate (if that is the right word) because my work over a decade ago with United Nations war crimes investigations via several criminal tribunals brought me to the killing fields of Yugoslavia, and for this series on the Ukraine War I have been to both Poland and Ukraine. My war team is based in Krakow, Poland where my media team + my Polish and Ukrainian researchers can freely operate, with access to our main OSINT contacts. Plus we have access to a wealth of historical experts from Jagiellonian University (the oldest university in Poland and the 13th oldest university in continuous operation in the world).
And it is those historical experts who warned that our Western orientation often means we project our own thoughts and preferences onto those things and those people we don’t understand. But having been a student of Vamik Volkan and having read his seminal book “Bloodlines” which addresses ethnic pride and ethnic terrorism across Eastern Europe, the Balkans, Ukraine and Russia I was prepared.
But this war is not just a war of regimes. It’s a war of memes (the concept coined by Richard Dawkins in his book “The Selfish Gene”, in which he devotes a chapter to his “meme theory”, and which has since itself mimetically overtaken popular culture). The media management strategy of Ukraine is as impressive as it’s extraordinary military effectiveness and the unflinching, resolute indefatigable courage of its people as witnessed by just this one example:
The curse of war – as much as the misery it brings during the hot phase – is it’s aftermath. There will be no clear victory in this war, and no end date. Absent use of a WMD, the outcome will be decades of grievance as too much has already happened to forgive. And it’s not about ending the war perhaps as much as it is about ending Putin’s mission to leave a historical legacy for the world.
I will examine this in detail over the weekend having just finished a lengthy NATO briefing on the battlefields + several long chats with ex-U.S. military commanders who had years of active service in Europe facing off the Russians, and who have advised me from Day 1 of the war.
The problem, as the war grinds on, is that Zelenskyy faces a new set of challenges.
1. He must keep up morale and the will to fight amid battlefield casualties, economic devastation and vast civilian suffering
2. He must retain the confidence of Western nations that Ukraine can prevail to ensure weapons keep flowing.
3. But as time goes on he must also figure out what if any sort of political agreement with Moscow to end the war will be acceptable to a Ukrainian population riding high after repelling Russian forces in many areas and feeling inspired to resist by his own actions and words.
4. He has relied on intense feelings of nationalism to continue to fight this war, but those are exactly the forces that make it extremely difficult to put this war to an end. That’s the real dilemma.
Why do we admire Volodymyr Zelenskyy? The question almost answers itself. As The New York Times noted in an editorial this past weekend:
We admire him because, in the face of unequal odds, Ukraine’s president stands his ground. Because he proves the truth of the adage that one man with courage makes a majority. Because he shows that honor and love of country are virtues we forsake at our peril. Because he grasps the power of personal example and physical presence. Because he knows how words can inspire deeds — give shape and purpose to them — so that the deeds may, in turn, vindicate the meaning of words.
Well, and because he reminds us of how rare these traits have become among our own politicians – who, collectively, amount to a pile of manure. Amazing. Zelenskyy was an actor who used his celebrity to become a statesman. Western politics is overrun by people who playact as statesmen so that they may ultimately become celebrities. Zelenskyy has made a point of telling Ukrainians the hard truth that the war is likely to get worse — and of telling off supposed well-wishers that their words are hollow and their support wanting. Our leaders mainly specialize in telling people what they want to hear.
And how can you not admire Zelenskyy because of who and what he faces. As The New York Times editorial contnues:
Vladimir Putin represents neither a nation nor a cause, only a totalitarian ethos. The Russian dictator stands for the idea that truth exists to serve power, not the other way around, and that politics is in the business of manufacturing propaganda for those who will swallow it and imposing terror on those who will not. Ultimately, the aim of this idea isn’t the mere acquisition of power or territory. It’s the eradication of conscience.
Some say Zelenskyy has restored the idea of the free world to its proper place. But I am a hard core cynic. Membership in “the free world” belongs to any country that subscribes to the notion that the power of the state exists first and foremost to protect the rights of the individual. That “free world” died a long time ago. In the U.S. In the UK. In France. In Germany. Oh, choose your “Western” country”. But the “free world” does understand the real threat posed by a totalitarian ethos. And so the arms will flow into Ukraine because (as one equally cynical military chum expressed it) “the U.S. will fight the Russians to the last Ukrainian”.
We admire Zelenskyy because he fights. Fighting is not supposed to be a virtue in civilized societies that value dialogue, diplomacy and compromise. But the world isn’t civilized. It is a Hellscape. Other than COVID, dystopian events, for most of us, were experienced not firsthand, but through the mediation of our screens. And “Hellscape” strikes a semantic chord with us because it captures our perspectival relationship to the chaos – not immersing us in hell, exactly, but framing it as a backdrop to our daily lives.
And we do admire Zelenskyy because he rouses the better angels of our nature. His leadership has actually made Joe Biden look good, and (might) even make NATO a better alliance. We’ll see.
For me, cynic that I am, I admire Zelenskyy because he maintains a sense of human proportion befitting an elected leader. Note the contrast between his public encounters with journalists, cabinet members, foreign leaders and ordinary citizens, and the Stalinist antics of the Putin court. The smallness of Putin. The paranoia and insecurity of a despot – who knows he may someday have to sell his kingdom for a horse.
Zelenskyy: impressive without being imposing; confident without being cocksure; intelligent without pretending to be infallible; sincere rather than cynical; courageous not because he is fearless but because he advances with a clear conscience. A pity the American political class will never take heed.
Ukraine’ s hour is now late. Far worse is yet to come. But the people of Ukraine have an indomitable leader.